Not Trump, Nor Desantis, But A Secret Third Thing

Expect The Unexpected

Because I never shut up about politics people sometimes ask me questions about what I think will happen next, possibly because they’re curious and possibly because they’d like to talk about literally anything but whatever socially-inappropriate stream-of-conscious contrarian inside-baseball rant I’ve screaming about in public.

One of the questions I get most often these days is the same question anyone even peripherally interested in right-wing politics gets: DeSantis or Trump?

The answer might surprise you: neither.

The follow-up question is obvious and the answer is that I have no idea and neither does anyone, because that’s usually how these things work. Remember when Hillary Clinton was for sure going to run in 2008? Remember when Jeb! was the Chosen One in 2016?

(BTW, if you’ve ever been curious what it feels like to cheer for Trump, check out this video of the big wet boy destroying Jeb and his entire family on the subject of Iraq in a live debate. It will simultaneously make and break your day)

Makes my heart skip a beat every time. These occasional moments of clarity are the kinds of things that gets me in trouble. Like last night, over drinks, shouting over the music that, as an anti-interventionist, I often align most closely with the American far right on non-immigration questions of foreign policy (Ukranian war excluded). This is not the stuff you should be screaming about during happy hour after half a Tecate or, you know, anywhere probably.

Sometimes coronations do happen. Hillary 2016 was a coronation, albeit one accomplished via usurpation (BERNIE 2016 #NEVERFORGET). For a long time, it looked to me like Trump 2024 was going to be a coronation as well. After a few terror-stricken weeks of doubt after January 6th the party doubled down on their fallen leader and Trump continued to rule with an iron fist. With a few notable exceptions (Brian Kemp in Georgia most of all), Trump’s endorsement decided the 2022 Republican primaries. Candidates fell over themselves to kiss the ring. It was the only thing primary voters seemed to care about. All hail the king.

But Trump flew too close to the sun. He seemed almost to revel in choosing hideously unsuitable candidates barely able to string a sentence together (Walker) or hated by his target audience (Oz). His decision to portray early and mail-in voting as fraud likely depressed Republican early and mail-in voting: something that both rural people and seniors depend on heavily. Thanks to the Trumpian transformation of the GOP, the self-proclaimed party of Fiscal Responsiblity decided to hammer home the culture wars rather than offer concete solutions for inflation and gas prices: a decision that would never have happened pre-Trump.

The only truly unforgivable sin in politics is losing, and Trump lost big.

2016 Trump could have pulled it together. 2016 Trump could have gone on the attack, as the Freedom Caucus did during the Speaker of the House wars. But Trump is no longer the destroyer of Bushes and social norms alike. After his defeat, the Great Leader locked himself away in Mar-a-Lago like a golden-haired Achilles, sulking in his tent. Olivia Nuzzi wrote a brilliant peice on the unravelling of Trump recently; well worth a read:

For 28 days, in fact, [Trump] has not left the state of Florida at all.

He is sensitive about this. He does not like what it suggests. So he does not accept the premise…“I am outside of Mar-a-Lago quite a bit. I’m always largely outside of Mar-a-Lago at meetings and various other things and events. I’m down in Miami. I go to Miami, I go to different places in Florida.”

Yes, Trump has gone outside of Florida since then. He’s held rallies, provoked headlines, made a video vowing to criminalize gender-affirming care. That’s right: Trump is doubling down on the issue Americans clearly declared uncompelling less than three months ago.

Don’t get me wrong: these attacks on trans rights are terrifying. The Republicans aim to change the culture, which they correctly assert is upstream from politics. Meanwhile, back in the present day, I paid $6 for a loaf of bread yesterday. I’m about to start making barricades and singing La Marseillaise. This isn’t hard. Tell me Biden is trying to starve me to death, promise me I’ll be able to afford eggs again if Trump comes back. Tell me sweet little lies. Stop wasting everybody’s time passing resolutions that socialism is Bad and start forcing through bills with titles like the Food Affordability Act. They don’t actually have to do anything, make it a tax cut for billionaires, who cares; the Senate will vote the bill down anyway and you can point to that vote and shriek “See?! The Dems don’t care about the Middle Class.” This is elementary school politics. Come on.

Besides, DeSantis has the market pretty well cornered on transphobia. Centering the issue probably helps him more than it helps Trump. Just as DeSantis will never be a better Trump than Trump, Trump will never be the best DeSantis no matter how hard he tries.

The civil war has started. Trump is already attacking DeSantis. DeSantis is actively gearing up for a run. Republicans are beginning to take sides. The polling’s all over the place. This race is no longer a coronation. It’s a bloodbath.

But this race is not the Clash of the Titans either. It’s a very complicated game of rock paper scissors.

DeSantis is probably the only candidate that can beat Trump head-to-head. But Trump is not the only candidate who can beat DeSantis. The Florida governor has pried open this primary, but that means it’s an open primary. There’s room for someone else.

It’s already happening. Nikki Haley is making presidential noises. She’s the first but won’t be the last. There’s blood in the water. While Trump and DeSantis savage each other, others will creep in and wait for the inevitable.

I have said it before and I will keep saying it: there is a reason you probably don’t know what Ron DeSantis’ voice sounds like. There is a reason you cannot quickly picture what he looks like, especially from the neck down. There’s a reason you read about him rather than hearing from him directly. But DeSantis won’t be able to hide his total lack of charisma behind the newspapers forever. He’ll have to leave Florida and start kissing hands and shaking babies, and when he does, Republicans will quietly begin to look elsewhere.

On one hand, I can’t wait. Bring it on. I want to see DeSantis and Trump eat each other alive, I want to eat popcorn while the party tears itself apart. I want some media outlet to pay me to follow these titans around and watch them clash. Please. Call me.

On the other hand, I’m jealous. Horribly so. And concerned about the outcome.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, the Democrats should also be savaging themselves. If Biden gets reelected, he will be 86 years old by the end of his term. Jesus Christ. It’s long past time for the Dems to find a successor, and sometimes the only way to find one is trial by combat.

The Democrats don’t have the same problem that the Republicans do. There are no titans to clash, no two rivals who can do irreparable harm to the fabric of the party. If Biden just steps back, the Dems can have a regular primary, with a regular amount of bloodshed, and maybe find, at very least, someone who talks like Obama but drone strikes fewer Middle Eastern weddings and does something about these goddamn bread prices. Maybe make it so everyone gets to enjoy the socialized medicine I get for being a veteran.

Whatever. Everything’s a disaster, everything sucks, and this whole American experiment feels about as stable as a drunken game of Jenga twenty minutes in. But maybe that’s a good thing. Maybe, just as the Democrats need trial by combat to find a better candidate, we need to fall apart to figure out a better way to be.

It feels pretty hopeless. Feels like the only people with a coherent plan are the Conservatives, and that plan leans heavily on purges of Satanic elements within society (read: the entire LGBTQ+ acronym, starting with trans people, then moving on to the Communist Socialist left-of-Mitch-McConnells).

Our Jenga tower needs to last a little longer. We have to put together a coherent left. The unions are doing great things, and people are getting real fed up with the both the Very Online Orouboros left and the more👋Black👋female👋CEOs radlibs. If history has taught us one thing, it’s that bread prices can only go so high before people lose their minds. I have a mad, causless hope that something will emerge. I have to. Wellbutrin only goes so far.

But the movement that can save us hasn’t emerged yet. We have to give it more time. Keep this tower standing, as long as we can.

So once again, I am asking you to rebel against Joe Biden. Follow the Republican example. Not Biden, nor Harris, but a secret third thing. Please.

And don’t get comfortable as the Trump vs DeSantis cage match gets going either. By all means enjoy it; I’m certainly going to. But conflict is how parties get stronger, in the end. Watch, and wait, and see what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards the White House to be born.

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